Can this get any simpler? Based on the expert NFL analysts of Bleacher Report are faring against the spread this year, it surely can’t get much tougher.
Picking every game, Brent Sobleski, Brad Gagnon and Gary Davenport had yet another challenging run in Week 12, falling their record that is joint . Individually and as a team, here’s the damage through 12 months (a week’s documents in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
With December looming, we requested longtime sports gambling analyst Dave Tuley if there could be some light at the end of the tube to the gambling public or when the sportsbooks will last to gain from bigger samples late in the summer season.
Tuley gave us some hope, but not enough to get removed.
“There was a time under a dozen years back where I had a bunch of years in a row where I just killed it the next half of this year and in December,” he said. “At the time, I felt as though it was only the time of year when the great teams were being overrated and the terrible teams were underrated, and with parity exactly what it was, the underdogs were doing a lot better at the time.”
However, Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered advantages that are consistently significant . “As much as bettors wish to believe that we’re getting smarter the more we see these teams play,” he said,”obviously the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they are adjusting and making it hard also.”
But he believes it’s possible to pick out lines that were exaggerated by midseason slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point distribute in favor of the New Orleans Saints at a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that lineup, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints would be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were at New Orleans, which does appear high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning series.
“That is [a manifestation of] how the Saints have been enjoying,” Tuley said. “For the novels to balance their actions, they have to place it at that amount.”
It’s something to remember as we enter the last month of the 2018 regular season. It may not save your season but if you’ve been after us any advice helps.
Here’s what Gagnon Davenport and Sobleski are currently thinking heading into the first slate in two or more months.
